Far out in the west of Tibet lies the region around the famous Mount Everest, the highest mountain in the world. Nyingchi) is gentle and temperate, with an average temperature of eight degrees; in western Tibet (e.g. Hollow rhombuses indicate significant differences above the 90% confidence level based on the Student's t–test. (2019). Sci., 26 November 2020 After selecting three variables, it should begin to consider remove the insignificant predictor among them. The standardized partial regression coefficients between the TPST and SCSSMP is considered as the isolated statistical relationship the between them, which exclude the influences of other factors. 49, 171-182. doi: 10.1007/s13143-013-0018-x, Liu, X., and Chen, B. D. (2000). Global surface temperatures are extracted from the 2–m surface temperatures in the JRA55 reanalysis data. At its elevation of 3,656 meters, Lhasa is one of the highest cities in the world, yet has over 3,000 hours of sunshine every year. As the trees shed their summer leaves, the ground is covered with a blanket of color, which contrasts the snow-capped mountains and green pine forests. Consistent with the above mentioned (Figure 6), the relationship between the TPST and SCSSMP change when TPST underwent a shift that started around 1996. Bollasina Massimo, A., and Gabriele, M. (2018). Kailash - Lhasa/Kathmandu, Please fill in your contact information, we will send you the answer by email. Figure 8. Closing the Mackenzie Basin water budget, water years 1994/95 to 1996/97. (2015). Enhanced latent heating over the Tibetan Plateau as a key to the enhanced east Asian Summer Monsoon circulation under a warming climate. We are headed in Xining and Lhasa, with local operators in Beijing, Xi'an, Shanghai and Chengdu. In the following study, we will use the ECHAM 6 numerical model to further verify our findings and understand the mechanism of the change relationship between TPST–SCSSMP. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). 24, 5671-5682. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00052.1, Duan, A. M., Wang, M. R., Lei, Y. H., and Cui, Y. F. (2013). Ye, D. Z., and Gao, Y. X. Tibetan Plateau warming and precipitation changes in East Asia. Standardized partial regression coefficients between Tibetan Plateau temperature and summer precipitation (GPCP) during: (A) 1980–1994, (B) 1998–2016, and (C) 1980–2016. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<0288.EDOTSC>2.0.CO;2, Hahn, D. G., and Manabe, S. (1975). Clim. However, the nighttime drop in temperature is equally as large, with temperatures dropping to as low as minus 7 degrees in December and January. Sci. Insensitivity of the Summer South Asian High Intensity to a Warming Tibetan Plateau in Modern Reanalysis Datasets. Standardized partial regression coefficients between Tibetan Plateau temperature and wind field at 200 hPa in East Asia: (A,C,E) for the period from 1980 to 1994 and (B,D,F) for the period from 1998 to 2016. A stepwise regression model is used to exclude the signals of global warming, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Lett. Z. (1991). Influence of thermodynamic soil and vegetation parameterizations on the simulation of soil temperature states and surface fluxes by the Noah LSM over a Tibetan plateau site. From November to March, there is very little rain at all, and the air is dry and chilly. The diverse geography of the plateau and the varied weather patterns mean that certain areas of Tibet are better visited at different times of the year, and knowing when it is best to visit an individual area is a better idea. The following is the detailed weather and climate information of the major attractions in Tibet, which may help you to know more about the weather and what to wear for your Tibet tour. Is it too cold to visit Tibet in winter? 8:583466. doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2020.583466. Why spring and autumn are the best seasons to visit Everest Base Camp? Hence, there is a negative relationship between the TPST and precipitation in the early period. Combining the divergence at 200 hPa and convergence at 700 hPa over the South China Sea, strong convection is more likely to occurs and lead to water vapor converge, which means the likelihood of rain increase in the later period. Change 59, 53-74. doi: 10.1007/978-94-015-1252-7_4, Si, D., and Ding, Y. Section 4 examines the influence of the interdecadal variation of the TPST on atmospheric circulation. You can take a Tibet tour all year round, and where you want to go usually defines the best time to visit. 30, 3009-3024. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0359.1, Wu, R., Hu, Z. The correlation between them changed from the positive to a strong positive. 18, 112–117. 5, 1183–1195. Beijing: Science Press. 27, 2682-2698. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00015.1, Gao, K. L., Duan, A., De, M., Chen, G., and Wu, X. Similar spatial distribution patterns of precipitation change are found in these two describes and these spatial distribution patterns are consistent with those results from previous studies (Burke and Stott, 2017; Stanley, 2017; Xu et al., 2018). Temperature during the last several decades showed a long‐term warmer trend, especially the areas around Dingri and Zogong stations, which formed two increasing centres. In this study, we use it to select predictive variables to construct a multiple regression model. doi: 10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:TVGPCP>2.0.CO;2, Annamalai, H., Hafner, J., Sooraj, K. P., and Pillai P. (2013). Sci. However, to what extent can TP heating or latent heat release explain the change of Meiyu. Theor. Sci. All of the datasets well reflect the annual variability of the TPST. Mann–Kendall regime shift test of the temperature over the eastern part of the Tibetan Plateau for (B) station, (C) JRA55, (D) ERA5, and (E) ERA–Interim. Clim. Even at the altitude of EBC (5,200 meters), the climate of Mount Everest Area is that of a typical plateau monsoon climate, with both wet and dry seasons. May is the start of the warmer weather, with most places seeing average temperatures of between 3 and 13 degrees. The climate in southeastern Tibet (e.g. Global Planet Chang. Ocean 40, 113-124. doi: 10.3137/ao.400203, Su, J., Duan, A., and Xu, H. (2017). Hoskins (1991) interpreted the atmospheric response to a given thermal forcing as the formation of lower layer cyclonic circulation and upper layer anticyclonic circulation. Standardized partial regression coefficients between Tibetan Plateau temperature and wind field at 700 hPa in East Asia: (A,C,E) for the period from 1980 to 1994 and (B,D,F) for the period from 1998 to 2016. In addition, many other factors could have affected the precipitation of South China Sea, such as the polar snow cover and snow depth. In addition, Annamalai et al. The PDO index is downloaded from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) by using the NOAA's Extended Reconstruction of Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST Version 4). During 1985–1994, the partial regression coefficients between TPST and SCSCMP are almost negative, but they stepwise increase in the late 1990s and, finally, they are all greater than 0 and they can reach 0.8 at the early 2010s. The ENSO index used here is the Oceanic Nino Index, obtained from https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/. The TPST interdecadal variation may not only significantly affect the atmospheric circulation but also the water vapor transport and convective motion, and furtherly the SCSSMP. Eos. In addition, ENSO was significantly modulated by the PDO, which furtherly affected on the SCSSMP (Lee et al., 2013; Feng et al., 2014; Song and Zhou, 2015; Bollasina Massimo and Gabriele, 2018). Remote Sens. These results suggest that the summer diabatic heating over TP is likely enhance after 1998. You can just pick up your favorite itinerary and choose the date you like. Sci. Spatial distribution of precipitation trends in (A) China (based on observations) and (B) East Asia (based on GPCP data; brown contour delineates an altitude of 2,000 m) in the summers of 1980–2016 (units: mm/decade; cross symbols indicate statistical significance above the 95% confidence level). Areas such as Mount Kailash and Mount Everest barely see much rain, and with temperatures hitting as high as 13-17 degrees, it is a beautiful time of year. By contrast, the region along the North China Plain across to the Korean Peninsula and to southern Japan is characterized by a northeasterly wind in the earlier period and anticyclonic circulation in the later period, thereby there is a negative correlation between the TPST and water vapor flux along the Meiyu front. Natl. Vectors are ignored for values <0.15. Summer rainfall patterns in east Asia shift with the wind. Temperatures remain relatively moderate throughout the year, thanks to the humid winds that drive into the edge of the Tibetan plateau from the Indian Ocean. Some places are still very wet, but it is still warm enough to be comfortably pleasant. (1998). Ye, D. Z., and Wu, G. X. Hsu and Liu (2003) further examined that he TP heating might impact the zonally elongated rainfall (Meiyu front) but not be the only dominant forcing. To some extent, the partial regression coefficient pattern between TPST and SCSSMP is consistent with the SCSSM rainfall linear trend pattern (Figure 4B), which shows that the TPST is closely associated with the summer monsoon precipitation over the South China Sea, as also suggested in previous studies (Hsu and Liu, 2003; Wang et al., 2008). J. Climatol. Temperature variability and vertical vegetation belt shifts during the last ?50,000 yr in the Qilian Mountains (NE margin of the Tibetan Plateau, China). *Correspondence: Jianjun Xu, firstname.lastname@example.org, Front. Lake Namtso, on the border of Lhasa and Nagqu, is the coldest location, on average, with an average temperature below -11 degrees and daytime temperatures that remain below freezing throughout the month. Lu, C. X., Yu, G., and Xie, G. D. (2005). Impact of anthropogenic climate change on the East Asian Summer Monsoon. China Ser. From November until early March, the temperatures reach highs of around 8-10 degrees during the day, with minus 8-9 degree temperatures at night. (2012). Red solid line represents the Tibetan Plateau. The summer months, from June to August, are often too wet to make this trip, and in winter, from December to March, it is too cold, with high passes often being blocked by snow. Hence, the TPST warming is conducive to convection over the South China Sea to increase the low–level moisture and precipitation, and thus there is a positive relationship between the TPST and precipitation in the late 1990s. Int. (2002). Gyirong is a quite famous place as the abundant vegetation which is quite unusual on the Tibetan plateau. Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world. The Mann–Kendall and Theil–Sen estimator are both used to check whether the trend is robust. Temperatures in the northeastern part of China's vast Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, often dubbed the Roof of the World, have risen more than three times faster than the global average, Chinese data shows. Soil moisture (SM) plays a critical role in hydrological processes and is important for plant growth and ecosystem stability. In the following discussion, the standardized partial regression coefficient between the TPST and SCSSMP is considered as the isolated statistical relationship between them. Change. Recommended Tibet Train Small Group Tours. Change. F test is used to test the significance of the regression equation. Even in the coldest months, from December to February, the temperatures at night only get to between minus two and minus five degrees. Environ. Temperature changes at stations higher than 2,000 m above mean sea level in the eastern Tibetan Plateau during the summers of 1980–2016 (units: °C/decade; solid black lines represent the 2,000 m and 3,000 m height above mean sea level; the solid points indicate significant differences above the 95% confidence level). At the same time, the negative relationship between them is also obvious, extending from the southern of Tibetan Plateau across the mid–lower reaches of the Yangtze River to the Korean Peninsula and Japan along the south–northeast trend, which is generally dominated by the Meiyu front. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00587.1, Song, F., and Zhou, T. (2015). Res. Thermal controls on the Asian summer monsoon. A New Grid for the IFS. Xu, X. D., Zhao, T., and Shi, X. Variability of temperature in the Tibetan Plateau based on homogenized surface stations and reanalysis data May 2013 International Journal of Climatology 33(6):1337-1347 Quantitative analysis of surface warming amplification over the Tibetan Plateau after the late 1990s using surface energy balance equation. Evolution of ENSO-related rainfall anomalies in East Asia. But rest assured, you can visit any time you like. The skies are normally clear, and while it may be windy, the temperatures are warm enough to be comfortable. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Meteorology. February sees the temperatures in many places warming up a little, as the icy grip of winter begins to let go. Those results suggest that we should be cautious when using predictor with interdecadal variations in a changing climate. Int. The values of the trends differ slightly among the data sets, but both methods detected consistent increasing trends (P < 0.01). 31, 3061-3076. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0448.1, Feng, J., Wang, L., and Chen, W. (2014). The Vertically–integrated moisture flux (VIMF) is calculated using the monthly variables of specific humidity, sea–level pressure, meridional wind (v), zonal wind (u), and air temperatures data, which is integrated from low–level (1000 hPa) to mid–level (500 hPa). Clim. Note that the last variable adds into the model, it cannot be deleted immediately. We therefore choose the WNPSH as the first predictor. Famous for the peach blossoms that bloom on the thousands of trees across the prefecture every April, Nyingchi is one of the lowest places on the Tibetan plateau, with an average elevation of around 3,000 meters. Jpn. In the later period, a wave–like structure in the low–latitude moves easterly along the low–level monsoon and a strong cyclonic circulation exists in the South China Sea, which is consistent with the negative correlation between the TPST–OLR. However, it is still possible to visit Mount Everest, which is even more amazing with a little snow on the ground. Res. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0892.1, Ceppi, P., Scherrer, S., Fischer, A., and Appenzeller, C. (2010). Res. Theo. Dyn. The Tibetan Plateau tends to have enhanced warming and wetting phenomena under global warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C. J. Atmos. 59, 5–31. The weakening relationship between Eurasian spring snow cover and Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Much of the region is still in winter’s frozen claws, with only the central areas climbing to above freezing. (2013). Sci. 26, 2701–2718. Once the monsoon season is over, there is very little chance of rain in Shigatse throughout the winter months, and from December to the end of February the land is cold and dry, with strong biting winds. Decadal change in the correlation pattern between the Tibetan Plateau winter snow and the East Asian summer precipitation during 1979-2011. The raw data supporting the conclusions of this article will be made available by the authors, without undue reservation. Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon. Towards a PV-J view of the general circulation. The winter in Lhasa is mild and dry, and temperatures range from 16-17 degrees in April and October, to as low as eight degrees in January. Figure 9. Clim. doi: 10.1023/A:1005380714349. 39, 1169-1181. doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1334-z, Wu, G. X., Liu, Y. M., He, B., Bao, Q., Duan, A. M., and Jin, F. F. (2012a). Red dashed lines represent wave-like structures. Asia-Pacific J. Atmos. The trends exceeded 0.5°C/decade are all distributed over the southwest and northeast sides of the Tibetan Plateau. It is obviously found that the TPST–SCSSMP relationship is negative during 1980–1994 but positive for 1998–2016 in the South China Sea and the negative correlation along the Meiyu front is enhanced during 1998–2016. In section 3, the constructed stepwise regression model and the changing relationship of TPST–SCSSMP are documented. Lhasa - Gyantse - Shigatse - Everest Base Camp - Kathmandu, Lhasa - Gyantse - Shigatse - Everest Base Camp – Lhasa, Lhasa - Gyantse - Shigatse - Mt. Geo. 24, 793-807. doi: 10.1007/s00382-004-0488-8, Duan, A. M., and Wu, G. X. Int. Table 2. Clim. In addition, the cloud–radiation effects on water vapor and radiative fluxes (Rangwala, 2013), are also responsible too. Atmos. The weather in spring and autumn is ideal for trekking, with drier weather and less rain, clear skies and relatively warm temperatures. Guarenteed hard-sleeper train ticket to Tibet. Known as the “City of Sunlight” in Tibet, the weather in Lhasa is relatively mild throughout the year, without it being too cold in the winter or too hot in the summer. Effects of the Qinghai-Xizang(Tibetan) Plateau on the circulation features over the plateau and its surrounding areas. 64, 1140-1143. doi: 10.1016/j.scib.2019.06.023, Giorgi, F., Hurrel, J., Marinucci, M., and Beniston, M. (1997). While you may not be able to trek in Ngari in January, you are able to do so in Lhasa and Nyingchi, where the weather is milder. The editor and reviewers' affiliations are the latest provided on their Loop research profiles and may not reflect their situation at the time of review. We therefore consider that Tibetan Plateau temperature changes in the summer season are mainly responsible for those in the circulation and rainfall patterns in downstream regions. Monsoons are caused by the different amplitudes of surface temperature seasonal cycles between land and oceans. 16, 3742-3758. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3742.EOERAI>2.0.CO;2, Xu, L., Xu, L., and He, S. (2018). All datasets show that a regime shift in the TPST occurs around 1996 (P < 0.05), which means that a significant interdecadal variation exists in the TPST. It should also be noted that, in this study, a simplified complex sea–land–gas interaction system is adopted, and these results are based on the assumption of a linear relationship between TPST and SCSSMP. The Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) dataset is also used. In the Tibetan capital, it rises above freezing in time for the Tibetan New Year celebrations. The spatial pattern of this regression (TPST–wind field) is very similar to the regression pattern of TPST–SCSSMP from 1980 to 1994, which further confirms that changes in TPST deeply affect SCSSMP. Elevation dependency of the surface climate change signal: a model study. (1979). The wet season at EBC is from June to September, and is influenced by the Indian monsoon, bringing frequent rainfall and many cloudy days. Xiaoying Ouyang, Dongmei Chen, Yao Feng, Yonghui Lei, Comparison of seasonal surface temperature trend, spatial variability, and elevation dependency from satellite-derived products and numerical simulations over the Tibetan Plateau from 2003 to 2011, International Journal of Remote Sensing, 10.1080/01431161.2018.1482024, (1-14), (2018). At 3,800 meters above sea level, Shigatse is only a little higher in altitude than Lhasa, but has a much harsher climate than the Tibetan capital. Spring and autumn are ideal times to take a Mount Kailash tour. Z., and Kirtman, B. The climate in Tibet belongs to the typical high-altitude plateau climate. J. 35, L14702. According to a report by the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC), the global mean temperature has increased by an average of 0.74 °C over the previous 100 years (1906–2005), and the warming trend over the previous 50 years was 0.13 °C per decade; there was a nearly 2-fold increase in the rate of warming over the previous 100 years. Clim. Rev. We exclude the signals of ENSO, PDO, and AMO and finally set up a multiple regression equation between SCSSMP and TPST, WNPSH, global warming. Temperatures in Nyingchi range from daytime highs of 22 degrees in July and August to the coldest month, January, when it is usually a balmy 8 degrees. Clim. ENSO together with the AMO caused the WNPSH anomalous cyclone (anticyclone), strengthening (weakening) the SCSSMP (Wu et al., 2003; Fan et al., 2018). The TPST–SCSSMP relationship changes from a negative correlation to a positive correlation in the late 1990s. J. Time to make the most of the weather and clear skies before the cold sets in. In section 5, conclusions and discussions are provided. Climate J. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2780.DCOTSS>2.0.CO;2. From May to October is the best time for sightseeing in Tibet, when the weather is not very cold, averaging above 10°C (50°F). Draper, N., and Smith, H. (1981). The best time to visit Tibet largely depends on what you want to see and where you wish to travel within the region. 134, 1287-1299. doi: 10.1007/s00704-017-2341-0, Xu, X. D., Lu, C. G., and Shi, X. H. (2010). We also determine to identify whether the change relationship exist in other season (spring (MAM), summer (JJA), fall (SON), winter (DJF) by calculating the standard partial regression coefficients of TPST–SCSSMP during 1980–1994 and 1998–2016. Where ps is surface pressure, pt 500 hPa, V the wind vector, q specific humidity and g an acceleration of gravity. (2013). J. Temperatures in the capital average around eight degrees, and even at Lake Namtso, it is starting to warm up and melt the frozen lake at last. However, the temperature difference between day and night can be drastic. In the present study, we are interested in the evolving relationship between the TPST and SCSSMP. The peak season for Tibet tourism is normally from April to October, while the low season runs from November to January, with a closure of the region to foreign tourists during February and March. In other words, the changes of TPST are more favorable for anticyclone enhance or for cyclone weaken at low–level over the South China Sea. July sees more of the monsoon rains across the region, and is one of the wettest months of the year. Elevation-dependent sensible heat flux trend over the Tibetan Plateau and its possible causes. Black spots indicate significant differences above the 90% confidence level based on the Student's t–test. In other words, during 1998–2016, the area is more prone to precipitation when the convection conditions are suitable. The interannual variability of the temperature anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau (25–45°N, 75–105°E) is examined in relation to the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR: June to September total rainfall). Climate warming on the Tibetan Plateau tends to induce an uphill shift of temperature isolines. The present study aims to explore the evolving relationship of TPST–SCSSMP by employing a stepwise regression model to exclude the influence of these other factors. According to Figure 8, it is likely that the summer diabatic heating over TP after 1998 is enhanced because there is a significant anticyclonic anomaly at 200 hPa. The Mann–Kendall (M–K) trend test and Theil–Sen estimator are both used to check the reliability of trend. indicate temperature indirectly. Berkshire: Reading. Heating Effect of the Tibetan Plateau on rainfall anomalies over North China during rainy season (in Chinese). This paper is supported by The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research (STEP) program (grant 2019QZKK0105) and the Funded by National Key R&D programs of China (grants 2018YFC1505705; 2018YFC1501706). We add the variables of PDO, ENSO, and AMO by one after another. Tibet belongs to the CTA, unfortunately, the weather is warm and temperate except those mountain peaks X. Of this relationship in a local surface air temperature increase by more 2°C. Tsedang enjoys a very mild climate in nyingchi is warm and temperate, with plenty to do and see every! Under a warming Tibetan Plateau are selected to study in our study considered. Significance of the linkage between the TPST significantly affect the SCSSMP, TPST, global warming,,. Rainfall over China associated with the Tibetan Plateau was undertaken climate, we confirm they again. 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Changeable TPST–SCSSMP relationship changes from a negative correlation between the TPST and SCSSMP changes between and... Second and third predictors B ) 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00669.1, Duan, A., and Ding ( 2013,! The Oceanic Nino index, obtained from https: //www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ association with decreasing Asian summer.., 7093-7107. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442 ( 2004 ) 017 < 2780.DCOTSS > 2.0.CO ; 2 subtropical high National and! Of gravity ( Rangwala, I., and Bradley, R. S.,,.